The continued expansion of armed groups in the Sahel: a warning to decision-makers

The African Sahel region, which includes the countries of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, today faces serious security challenges that threaten its stability and directly affect the lives of millions of its residents. Our report seeks to shed light on the deteriorating situation in this region, focusing on a deep analysis of the causes and consequences of the expansion of armed activities, in order to raise awareness among decision-makers in the region and the world.

The expansion of armed groups in the face of instability

These groups exploit the weakness of government institutions and operate in the absence of security stability, which allows them to impose their control over large areas. In Mali, for example, the group has come to control areas near the capital, Bamako, charging travel fees and seizing fuel trucks, significantly affecting the local economy.

The situation is becoming more complicated due to repeated coups in these countries, as the rapid political transformation has led to a security vacuum that has helped these groups expand their influence.

The pivotal factors behind the expansion

Mohamed Al-Tayyar, a Moroccan security expert specializing in Sahel affairs, points out that the military coups in the region contributed greatly to confusing the work of security institutions, which led to the spread of the security vacuum. With the withdrawal of international forces such as Wagner and MINUSMA from Mali, as well as the decline in Western support after recent coups, armed groups have enjoyed greater freedom in their movements.

Finance and organizational structures

Al-Tayyar explains that armed groups derive their strength from a diverse network of funding sources, most notably ransoms resulting from kidnappings, the taxes they impose on the local population, and the illegal trade in gold and drugs. Ransoms alone represent a huge source of income for armed groups, generating millions of dollars that are used to purchase weapons and attract more fighters.

The groups use guerrilla tactics, making it difficult for conventional armies to confront them directly. Controlling the routes for smuggling goods across the Sahara also gives these groups financial influence that contributes to strengthening their capabilities.

Foreign interventions and the complexity of the conflict

The pilot points out that conflicting foreign interventions, whether from France, Russia, or the United States, have contributed to deepening the conflict rather than resolving it. Rapid political transformations and internal unrest make it difficult to coordinate any international effort to stop the expansion of armed groups. The conflict in the Sahel is not only a local conflict, but has become an arena for international competition between major powers, which further complicates the situation and leads to the weakness of local institutions.

Humanitarian and economic impacts

According to a report by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, the death toll due to extremist violence in the Sahel region will reach about 10,400 people in 2024 alone, constituting 55% of the total deaths resulting from violence on the continent. The mass displacement of citizens is becoming an increasing problem, as the region is expected to witness a significant increase in the numbers of refugees and internally displaced persons, which will lead to further pressure on local resources.

Areas controlled by armed groups are witnessing a sharp decline in economic activity, with trade and transportation disrupted, which increases rates of poverty and marginalization. These conditions make it difficult for local governments to implement any development programs or provide basic services to the population.

International response and future challenges

This alliance aims to enhance cooperation between the three countries in confronting terrorism and organized crime. However, there are concerns about the effectiveness of this alliance, especially in light of the decline in international support and the internal challenges facing these countries.

Internal conflicts between groups such as ISIS and Al-Qaeda may limit their ability to expand unlimitedly, but they still pose a major threat.

Conclusion: Urgent action is necessary

Governments in this region must rebuild their security institutions and strengthen citizens’ confidence in them. There must also be unified efforts to combat the sources of funding that fuel these groups, such as drug trafficking and smuggling.

Through a rapid response based on a careful analysis of the situation, we can reduce the influence of armed groups, and give the people of the region the opportunity to live in security and stability.