Iran from 2231 to the return of sanctions

Iran was never far from the vortex of international resolutions, but the moment of the fall of 2025 represented the peak of tension. At a time when Tehran believed that Security Council Resolution 2231 had protected it from past sanctions, the fall of this resolution brought it back to square one, under penalty of Chapter Seven, amid an unprecedented collapse of its national currency, and the return of the specter of economic and diplomatic isolation.

The beginning dates back to 2006, when Iran’s name entered the Security Council hall for the first time as a threat to international peace and security. Resolution 1696 demanded that it stop enrichment, and then the decisions came successively: 1737, which imposed nuclear and financial sanctions, 1747, which banned arms exports, 1803, which tightened the noose on banks and shipments, 1835, which established pressure without additional sanctions, until 1929 in 2010, which was the most severe, as it imposed a broad ban on heavy weapons and restrictions. During those years, the value of the Iranian rial gradually declined, the black market expanded, and the features of a besieged economy began to clearly take shape.

But 2015 represented a rare moment of relief. When Iran signed its nuclear agreement with the P5+1 group, and Resolution 2231 was issued, which abolished previous UN sanctions, Tehran rejoiced. Oil returned to the markets, European companies rushed to sign investment contracts, and Iranian diplomacy opened doors that would not have been opened without the agreement. It seemed as if Iran was starting a new page with the world, albeit cautiously, while the International Atomic Energy Agency worked to monitor its nuclear commitments. It was more like a “short honeymoon” with the West.

However, the winds did not blow as the ships desired. In 2018, US President Donald Trump withdrew from the nuclear agreement and unilaterally restored US sanctions, leaving Europe in great embarrassment, unable to save the agreement through the INSTEX mechanism, which did not bear fruit. Here the Iranian riyal began a new journey of collapse, and the internal markets experienced a stifling wave of inflation. However, Resolution 2231 remained in place, giving Iran international cover, even if it was formal.

Then 2025 came to destroy everything. The European Troika activated the snapback mechanism, and the Security Council practically announced the end of Resolution 2231, so the previous six resolutions returned to life with all the sanctions and pressures they carried. Thus, Iran once again found itself under Title Seven, entering a new phase of open confrontation. The Iranian riyal collapsed to more than one million riyals to the dollar on the free market, i.e. more than 108,000 tomans, while the official price remained fictitious at 42,000 riyals. The gap between reality and paper was enough to reflect the scale of the crisis.

The political landscape was no less bleak. The Iranian parliament began talking about amending the nuclear doctrine and the possibility of withdrawing from the Non-Proliferation Treaty, while the doors to negotiations with Europe and America were closed. There is no longer room for the Vienna table or for promises to return to the agreement. Rather, diplomacy has turned into a language of escalation and threat. Israel found in this development an additional pretext for action, while Western capitals were divided between tightening the noose and calling for containing the crisis.

Thus, between the collapse of the currency and the activation of Article Seven, Iran returned to the era of heavy sanctions. From a situation in which it was betting on international legitimacy through Resolution 2231, it is now in confrontation with the entire Security Council, and with an economy that falters with every shock. The question is no longer about the future of the negotiations, but rather about the form of the next confrontation: Will it be a stifling economic confrontation, a limited military confrontation, or a broader explosion affecting the entire region?

It is a defining moment, a moment that reveals that international politics knows no vacuum, and that the fall of a single decision is capable of overturning economic and political equations that have spanned an entire decade.