Ceasefire in Gaza: a temporary truce or a stop in an open conflict?

The ceasefire in Gaza came after nearly two years of intense bombing and genocide, as a humanitarian step aimed at facilitating the entry of food and medical aid to besieged civilians, and containing the worsening humanitarian catastrophe that has afflicted more than two million Palestinians living under siege and famine.

However, this truce, despite its field importance, does not address the origin of the crisis or its historical roots, as this agreement is not the first of its kind since the outbreak of the Israeli war on the Gaza Strip. A similar agreement was concluded months ago, but it did not last more than sixty days before the occupation violated it again through assassinations and renewed bombing, violating the sovereignty of other Arab countries, especially after the failed attempt during which the occupation sought to liquidate a number of Hamas leaders participating in the Doha negotiations.

This confirms that the problem does not lie in the truces themselves, but rather in the aggressor party that does not abide by them. The Israeli occupation, as primarily responsible for the outbreak of the situation, is the one who established the roots of this chaos since the establishment of its state in 1948, and the forced displacement, accelerated settlement, and systematic confiscation of Palestinian lands and rights. Therefore, according to what experts confirm, any truce that does not address the roots of the conflict represented by the continued occupation remains merely a temporary stop on the path of an open crisis.

Israel is between the dilemma of deterrence and the erosion of prestige

Inside Tel Aviv, the war revealed a deep strategic impasse.

It did not succeed in achieving its military goals, and was unable to secure its internal front, which became threatened by sharp divisions between the government and its opponents. At the international level, its moral and political image has declined to its lowest levels, with the escalation of human rights condemnations that described what happened in Gaza as documented war crimes.

This decline in prestige represents a long-term strategic shift that weakens its ability to impose its terms and vision in any future settlement.

Palestinian resistance: stabilizing the equation of mutual deterrence

On the other hand, the Palestinian resistance emerged as a political and military actor capable of imposing new equations despite the huge difference in power. It succeeded in moving the battle from self-defense to mutual deterrence, and proved that the occupation is not in absolute control as it was promoted, and that its army can be defeated when faced with real preparation and readiness.

Despite the massive destruction, the resistance emerged from the battle having accumulated a growing political and popular capital, and increased Arab and international legitimacy, which made Gaza a symbol of steadfastness and a laboratory for the post-traditional occupation era.

The regional role: a delicate balance between pressure and mediation

Regional movements, especially Egyptian and Qatari, showed that the region is searching for a balance between supporting stability and preventing a wider explosion. However, what happened also revealed the limits of Arab influence in the absence of a unified position. It has become clear that any upcoming settlement will not be possible without the inclusion of influential Arab parties, as well as international bodies, most notably the United Nations, not only as mediators, but as guarantors of a political path that restores respect for Palestinian rights.

The international community: the erosion of traditional Western discourse

Internationally, the recent aggression marked a turning point in Western public opinion.

This slow but incremental shift in Western consciousness constitutes a strategic gain for the Palestinians in the long term, as it re-presents the issue from the perspective of human rights and international justice, not just a geographical or political dispute.

Post-truce prospects: The battle for awareness and sovereignty

The next stage will not be measured by the number of missiles or the size of the rubble, but rather by the ability of the Palestinians to transform steadfastness into a renewed national project. As for Israel, it will try to restore its image and rebuild the balance of deterrence, but today it faces a new opponent: a more mature Palestinian and Arab consciousness, which believes that the battle for liberation is no longer in the field alone, but in the field of awareness, conscience, and politics, and in employing modern technology to formulate a unified Arab ranks united by a single liberation project.